Deficit irrigation won’t be a silver bullet

Weighing the costs and benefits of an opportunity can be the first step in the decision-making process. Farmers know both sides of this scale hang heavy when that decision pertains to agricultural practices that are under public scrutiny, like irrigating hay crops in the western U.S.

Yet another initiative has been proposed to save water from the Colorado River in one of the highest-producing hay regions of the country. California’s Imperial Irrigation District board recently approved the Deficit Irrigation Program (DIP), which is a three-year program that will allow producers to pause irrigation on three forage species for federal compensation.

Farmers who close their canals and shut off their sprinklers for alfalfa, bermudagrass, and kleingrass will receive $300 per acre-foot of water saved during their option of a 45-day or 60-day window beginning in August. Although the deadline to apply for the DIP passed last Tuesday, the program is currently amid a 30-day comment period, and it still needs to be approved by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service before it can officially commence.

The benefits of the DIP and similar programs in other states are relatively clear, and they do offer solutions to the water crisis that has consumed the Colorado River Basin in recent years. With that said, the short- and long-term costs to individual operations that can occur when farmers opt for deficit irrigation are harder to predict, especially as growing conditions, local economies, and hay prices vary from one season to the next.

Boasting the benefits

In a recent article from The New York Times, staff writer Ian James reports the Imperial Irrigation District is the single-largest consumer of Colorado River water in Southern California. In fact, the district delivered roughly 2.4 million acre-feet of water of the river’s 16.5 million acre-feet budget to farmers in 2023.

Alfalfa, bermudagrass, and kleingrass acres accounted for 234,000 of the region’s 320,000 acres of cultivated farmland — nearly 75% — as of mid-June. With the implementation of the DIP, it is estimated that 200,000 to 250,000 acre-feet of water could be retained in Lake Mead this year. That would cover a decent chunk of the 700,000 acre-feet the Imperial Irrigation District pledged to save through 2026.

Deficit irrigation and fallowing fields are already common practices in other major alfalfa-growing areas like the nearby Palo Verde Valley; however, they have not gained as much traction in the Imperial Valley because of the perceived effects on total forage production and farm profitability.

Tina Shields, the Imperial Irrigation District water manager, calls the DIP a “mini-fallowing program,” and one that could strike a balance between supporting farms and combatting water concerns by fallowing certain fields during a specific, shortened period. In other words, eliminating irrigation to perennial crops only during the dog days of summer should cause the least disruption to total forage production while offering an optimal bump in water savings.

“The goal is to strengthen the Colorado River and ensure long-term viability and reliability,” Shields says in The New York Times article. “It’s our only water supply. And we also want to keep agriculture in production, because that’s the bread and butter of our local economy. We think that there’s ways to do both.”

Considering the costs

Despite retaining water and financial compensation, the DIP raises questions about seasonal forage production and sustainability. Josh Callan, author of the Hoyt Report, purports the biggest impacts of the DIP will be lower hay supplies, variable hay prices, and reduced labor, which may also be true for similar mitigation strategies.

Lower supply. Shutting off irrigation to alfalfa, bermudagrass, and kleingrass fields will slash summer yields, which will inherently impact total volumes. For the stands that do stay in production, though, forage quality will likely be lower as forage competes with extreme heat.

This drop in quality may justify the decision to omit one or two cuttings. In fact, many of Callan’s contacts are on board with the DIP for this reason. Even so, he notes the consequences of deficit irrigation could trickle down to affect fall growth. A scarcity of late-season hay could be a significant threat to farmers selling to local dairies that are in search of high-quality forage after a summer of sourcing low-quality feed.

“Most of the contacts I spoke with expect to enroll half or more of their kleingrass and bermudagrass acres, and a similar or small proportion of their alfalfa acres,” Callan writes. “For the acres that remain in production, I expect most to be processed into small bales for the retail market.”

Hay prices. Hay prices for lower quality alfalfa are down as supplies exceed demand in the West. This may have been another deciding factor for farmers who applied for the DIP in hopes of receiving federal copmensation, in addition to saving on high operating cost by pausing production.

Callan does not anticipate fallowing fields will have an immediate effect on hay prices considering the current overstock. In a year with higher hay prices and stronger demand, though, the efficacy of the DIP could be a different story.

“Typically, the grades of hay produced during the heat of summer are of lower quality, and currently, there is an oversupply of these grades,” he states. “Initially, this program might not impact prices for these lower grades significantly, but it could over time as supplies diminish.”

Grass hay demand is also low, especially from export markets. Callan suggests even tighter supplies as a result of the DIP could eventually drive prices up, but that won’t necessarily encourage more interest from buyers that lack funds. In fact, the Hoyt Report author writes this could turn prominent export markets away from U.S. grass hay in search of other sources.

“Markets like Taiwan, which takes mainly bermudagrass hay, may be negatively impacted,” Callan asserts.

Reduced labor. Callan’s final concern is the impact the DIP will have on farm labor. Skipping one or two summer cuttings could cause farmers to furlough employees or make other adjustments to work schedules. Custom forage harvesting crews could also see a dip in service calls as farmers temporarily shut off their irrigation systems.

There’s no doubt that deficit irrigation offers solutions to water usage, but the cost of these programs can quickly outweigh the benefits without proper context of growing conditions and the economic environment. Every drop of water matters, but so does every dollar.