How low can hay go?

The price of hay continues to set market lows not seen for nearly five years. The September average price is now over $100 less than just two years ago. It will be interesting to see if the typical cyclic rise in prices occurs over the winter months or if hay inventories are still large enough to offset any upward market movement.

The September average price of alfalfa dropped for the fourth consecutive month, according to data from the USDA’s Agricultural Prices report. The average September price for alfalfa hay dropped to $172 per ton, down $3 from the previous month. The average grass (other) hay price retreated to $140 per ton, $8 below the September price.

The average price for Supreme and Premium alfalfa hay also dropped, settling at $227 per ton, which was $9 lower than the previous month.

Only one state, Ohio, posted a double-digit month-over-month alfalfa price gain during September; its price was up by $15 per ton and followed a $10 boost the previous month in the drought-stricken state.

Double-digit declines during September were noted in six states. Pennsylvania was down $21 per ton, while Oklahoma and New York experienced a $20 per ton drop. Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah declined by $10 per ton.

The highest average September alfalfa hay price was reported in Texas at $270 per ton and was followed by New Mexico at $250. California posted a $230 average price, while Kentucky and Oregon settled at $220 per ton.

North Dakota and Minnesota posted the lowest average alfalfa price at $100 per ton. They were followed by South Dakota at $110.

Keep in mind that USDA average prices account for all qualities and bale types of hay sold. Also, the final U.S. estimate is a volume-weighted average rather than a simple average of state values. Those states with the most volume sales will impact the final U.S. dollar value more than those states with fewer sales.

Supreme and Premium

The USDA also tracks the prices of Supreme and Premium quality alfalfa in the major dairy states and determines an average price from the five top milk-producing states (California, Idaho, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin). This data is used to determine feed prices in the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program.

For September, the average price of Supreme and Premium alfalfa hay dropped by $9 per ton to $227, which followed price declines the previous three months. One year ago, the average price of Supreme and Premium alfalfa hay was $288 per ton.

Other hay

The September average price of other hay (mostly grass) dropped by $8 from August to $140 per ton, which was $27 per ton lower than a year ago.

The highest September price for hay other than alfalfa was reported in Oregon at $220 per ton. Washington had the next highest price at $215.

Minnesota had the lowest reported other hay average price at $80 per ton. It was followed by Oklahoma at $83 per ton.